Signposts and early indicators

Positive trajectory

Faster connections with firm capacity and lower curtailment

Adverse trajectory

Persistent delays, rising cancellation and congestion

Positive trajectory

Competitive firm low-carbon power

Adverse trajectory

High volatility, rationing risk or delayed network build

Positive trajectory

Deficits close through demand, reuse and infrastructure

Adverse trajectory

Widening deficits or development moratoria

Positive trajectory

Movement from plans to verified outcomes

Adverse trajectory

Continued “not good” delivery and rising losses

Positive trajectory

Risk-based cover remains accessible with retrofit incentives

Adverse trajectory

Withdrawal, unaffordability or abrupt repricing

Positive trajectory

Broad gains with new entry routes and skills diffusion

Adverse trajectory

Concentrated gains, job polarisation, weak aggregate productivity

Positive trajectory

Efficiency and flexible operation reduce local system burden

Adverse trajectory

Rapid load growth with low local value and high resource use

Positive trajectory

Longer healthy participation and lower care constraints

Adverse trajectory

Widening healthy-life gap and labour withdrawal

Positive trajectory

Participation broadens among lower-income and older workers

Adverse trajectory

Declining, affluent-only lifelong learning

Positive trajectory

Essential workers can access high-value places

Adverse trajectory

Climate-safe and productive places become exclusionary

Positive trajectory

Durable local value rises with deployment

Adverse trajectory

Host burdens rise while value leaks elsewhere

Positive trajectory

Stable high-integrity markets and durable management finance

Adverse trajectory

Greenwashing, policy reversal and buyer retreat

Positive trajectory

Productive and ecological capacity maintained together

Adverse trajectory

Rapid loss of options or chronic farmer exit

Positive trajectory

Fewer strategies with higher delivery conversion

Adverse trajectory

More agencies and targets without outcomes

Positive trajectory

Early participation and accepted benefit models

Adverse trajectory

Rising opposition, legal challenge and perceived unfairness

Positive trajectory

Clear additionality and bounded roles

Adverse trajectory

Mission creep, crowding out or accountability disputes

Positive trajectory

Early, funded and participatory pathways

Adverse trajectory

Crisis-led abandonment and uncompensated loss

Positive trajectory

Systems remain functional and value broadly accessible

Adverse trajectory

High aggregate value with exclusion, fragility or ecological decline